The setting of monetary policy that will emerge with the onset of the global economic recovery is fairly clear, but: when could initiate the reversal in rates downward cycles? The reversal in the direction of monetary policy can begin with the first signs of economic recovery since the change in the direction of the same, if not too sharp, not dampen the recovery of economies. The most likely context is that the economic recovery begins in the American economy and is then transmitted to the rest of the economies. Although the widespread view is that the economic recovery both in the U.S. and in the rest of the economies occur in 2010, some argue that it could advance. In fact, some positive economic data in the U.S. economy (in retail sales, in applications for benefit for unemployment, industrial production, among other indicators) have increased the expectation of a speedy recovery that could occur by the end of the third quarter of this year. Bernanke is confident that the economic recovery will occur this year.
According to a survey by The Wall Street Journal, made 53 prestigious economists, in September of this year, the U.S. economy would begin their recovery, which suggests that the early episodes of hikes in interest rates there would be before end of the year. Can you slow down the economic recovery, the need for central banks to control inflationary pressures? The probability of this happening is minimal since the economic recovery be charged own force in the midst of a virtuous circle gaining ever greater momentum. In addition, the rates of interest in most of the economies, are at excessively low levels, so there is a good margin to raise them. When even the international financial crisis is not resolved, the inflationary ghost prepares to emerge. Can central banks adequately conduct its monetary policy balancing growth and inflation?