An island that depends on the world scene at the moment the trend that most perceived is that of the Castroite will reintegrate the region and creating business alliances that seek to counter to free trade treaties with the United States by a Latin American protectionist bloc. As more Cuba closer ties with Venezuela and Mercosur, two phenomena may generate. One may be the emergence of a wing of countries intending to use the South American hydrocarbon and economies relatively less dependent on Argentina and Brazil to make a form of Latin block in the style of the Union European. The other can be followed by pressing to get the Castro is des-sovietizando and opening up its political and economic system towards one more akin to that of Venezuela or Brazil. Several analysts agree in saying that while U.S. is distracting in Middle East Catsro and Chavez have been advancing in your backyard. However, United States requires latinoamericanizar West Asia (i.e., replacing protectionist regimes by ones that liberalize the economy and politics).
If it achieves that goal you can consolidate globally and in the Americas. There both Chavez trying to support Iran and organize with Russia, Belarus, Viet Nam and China a counterweight to Washington. The future of the island depends on the international scene. The Soviet interest was who played great role in transforming democratising rebel Fidel expropriative Communist. The Soviet breakup found Fidel seeking a compromise between the rise of liberal globalization and to maintain China and Viet Nam as a monopoly of the Communist Party which opens gradually to market. If the weakness of U.S. in the 1960s pushed Fidel to the left and if the triumph of the United States in the 1990s did Fidel go distancing themselves from their radicalism and promote insurgencies, today much of his future depends of as left United States in its global war on terrorism and his attempt to appear as the Ging of the planet (something thatfor the moment, comes recoiled and generating counterweights by the EU and Russia).
The Castroism could accentuate its evolution towards wanting to combine aspects of the old statist plan with new concessions to market (and perhaps some form of internal tolerance) to the extent that go brewing an affine pole in their own region. The resignation of Fidel as President of Cuba and head of its armed forces does not imply that he leaves power, but that he remains as the central figure who is allowing that his successor, go train at the time that guarantee stability and continuity. Fidel Castro not only follows the example of Deng Xiaoping’s spend their old age as the maximum leader that supervises those who hold key public offices, but will seek to make his island go traveling the same way Chinese and indochino move towards an economy that combines with the private company statism but which imposes order and growth through the monopoly of a single Communist Party.