In 2009, many predicted the end of the dollar as the currency of reference in favour of the euro, but the correction seemed logical after the highs of the EURUSD at 1,6040. However, few investors expected a decline so virulent by the debt crisis in the eurozone. Forecasts of experts as Roberto ruarte, although helped by additional factors, have seemed to materialize with precision. Almost a year ago, analyst asserted in its anticipation of the EURUSD for 2010 falling from 1,6040 was a correction of long term, not a trend. He also claimed he would speak of the disappearance of the euro.
In the year, the EURUSD has come to fall 17%. It was below 1.20, and the euro’s survival was in doubt. Research For Traders experts pointed out that Europe, with a strong euro and a weak dollar, may not increase production via exports. To happen otherwise, the cheap euro has boosted German competitiveness. The result: Europe out of the crisis more faster than expected. Do and now what? The European debt crisis is far from its end. John Hardy of Saxo Bank said that the recent upturn in the EURUSD could be a crushing defeat for the currency.Although some macro data are benevolent, the recent rise of the euro is rather a consequence of the weakness of the dollar.
If we look at specific levels (), Saxo Bank predicts that the EURUSD will be around 1.25 in the short term. In the next three months could fall to 1.17 and in twelve months we would see in 1.12. These predictions resemble those made by ruarte a year ago. It is easy to see the inverse correlation between the EURUSD and the differentials of debt in the eurozone. Falls of the dollar are accompanied by increases in the differential (). Saxo Bank hopes will revive the status of sovereign debt in Europe. Therefore, possibly the couple is facing further cuts toward Christmas. The Danish Bank expects the dollar rises against the euro in the next 12 months, because United States seems to be ahead of the curve (). Will we see the EURUSD in 1.10 in 2011? The experts who already have been successful in the past do not preclude it. For more information: Uriel Alvarado Cancino Head of Marketing, Latin Region. Saxo Bank Aida Blanco Real Marketing Project Manager, Latin Region.